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FK Sarajevo vs Zrinjski Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:45

FK Sarajevo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWL ··

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Zrinjski

PPG 1.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-111.2%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.3%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-17.9%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.0%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 40.0% 2.50 -9.0%

Draw 27.7% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

Away win 35.9% 37.0% 2.70 -3.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.8% 4.20 +4.5%

BTTS 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 36.2% 2.76 -11.4%

Away O1.5 32.6% 34.7% 2.88 -6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1✓ 11.2%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 1–0 12.8%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Sarajevo1.2

Zrinjski1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FK SARAJEVO · PPG 2.00

ZRINJSKI · PPG 1.99

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FK Sarajevo (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.5%

Zrinjski (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Sarajevo face Zrinjski in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Sarajevo a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Zrinjski 36%, so FK Sarajevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FK Sarajevo and 1.0 for Zrinjski (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Sarajevo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.99 for Zrinjski. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 0-1.

FK Sarajevo vs Zrinjski Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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