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Zrinjski vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Zrinjski

PPG 2.02 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLD ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-16.6%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-110.7%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.7%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.6%3-14.7%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-12.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 77.5% 1.29 -29.4%

Draw 23.8% 22.2% 4.50 +4.3%

Away win 21.4% 10.0% 10.00 +68.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 57.8% 1.73 -22.5%

Over 3.5 26.1% 36.5% 2.74 -17.1%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 47.4% 69.4% 1.44 -31.7%

Away O1.5 16.6% 14.5% 6.90 +8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0✓ 14.0%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zrinjski1.6

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ZRINJSKI · PPG 2.02

ZELJEZNICAR SARAJEVO · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zrinjski (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -29.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.3%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (A) 21.4%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +68.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zrinjski face Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zrinjski a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 21%, so Zrinjski are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Zrinjski and 0.6 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zrinjski are averaging 2.02 points per game versus 1.17 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Zrinjski vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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