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Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:30

Siroki Brijeg

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWD ·

UPCOMING

FK Sarajevo

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWL ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-19.8%0-23.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.6%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.6%3-13.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 28.6% 3.50 +67.3%

Draw 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

Away win 23.4% 48.8% 2.05 -31.2%

Over 2.5 42.3% 43.5% 2.30 -2.7%

Over 3.5 20.9% 23.1% 4.33 -5.7%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 29.0% 3.45 +32.5%

Away O1.5 19.2% 43.5% 2.30 -33.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siroki Brijeg1.3

FK Sarajevo0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SIROKI BRIJEG · PPG 1.72

FK SARAJEVO · PPG 1.39

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Siroki Brijeg (H) 47.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +67.3%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.3%

FK Sarajevo (A) 23.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siroki Brijeg face FK Sarajevo in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siroki Brijeg a 48% chance, the draw 29% and FK Sarajevo 23%, so Siroki Brijeg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Siroki Brijeg and 0.7 for FK Sarajevo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siroki Brijeg are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.39 for FK Sarajevo. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +62.0%.

Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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