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Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

WLD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Siroki Brijeg

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.6%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-112.9%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.6%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 54.1% 1.85 -18.4%

Draw 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -11.6%

Away win 29.0% 25.6% 3.90 +7.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 25.7% 25.6% 3.90 +0.1%

BTTS 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Home O1.5 37.8% 47.2% 2.12 -19.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 26.7% 3.74 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo1.3

Siroki Brijeg0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZELJEZNICAR SARAJEVO · PPG 1.66

SIROKI BRIJEG · PPG 1.39

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (H) 44.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -18.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.6%

Siroki Brijeg (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo face Siroki Brijeg in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zeljeznicar Sarajevo a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Siroki Brijeg 29%, so Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and 0.9 for Siroki Brijeg (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.39 for Siroki Brijeg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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