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Velež vs Sloga Doboj Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:45

Velež

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWL ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Sloga Doboj

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-110.6%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.6%1-112.2%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.2%2-16.9%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.6%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 40.0% 2.50 +9.8%

Draw 32.2% 37.0% 2.70 -13.1%

Away win 23.9% 35.7% 2.80 -19.9%

Over 2.5 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% 18.5% 5.40 -1.0%

BTTS 43.6% 47.6% 2.10 -8.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 31.3% 3.20 -2.1%

Away O1.5 16.6% 29.9% 3.34 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–0 19.6%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–0✓ 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velež1.1

Sloga Doboj0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VELEŽ · PPG 1.64

SLOGA DOBOJ · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Velež (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.8%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.1%

Sloga Doboj (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velež face Sloga Doboj in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velež a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Sloga Doboj 24%, so Velež are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Velež and 0.6 for Sloga Doboj (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velež are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.87 for Sloga Doboj. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Velež vs Sloga Doboj Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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