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Siroki Brijeg vs Radnik Bijeljina Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:45

Siroki Brijeg

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWD ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Radnik Bijeljina

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLD ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+19.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-16.4%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.6%1-110.5%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-18.5%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.8%3-14.6%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-12.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 48.8% 2.05 +19.3%

Draw 25.3% 36.4% 2.75 -18.3%

Away win 16.5% 26.7% 3.75 -22.9%

Over 2.5 43.8% 40.0% 2.50 +9.5%

Over 3.5 24.4% 22.2% 4.50 +5.9%

BTTS 43.6% 45.5% 2.20 -4.1%

Home O1.5 47.4% 40.7% 2.46 +16.6%

Away O1.5 16.4% 23.8% 4.20 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 58% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%

#2 2–0 14.4%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 2–1✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siroki Brijeg1.6

Radnik Bijeljina0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SIROKI BRIJEG · PPG 1.51

RADNIK BIJELJINA · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Siroki Brijeg (H) 58.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +19.3%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -18.3%

Radnik Bijeljina (A) 16.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siroki Brijeg face Radnik Bijeljina in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siroki Brijeg a 58% chance, the draw 25% and Radnik Bijeljina 17%, so Siroki Brijeg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Siroki Brijeg and 0.6 for Radnik Bijeljina (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siroki Brijeg are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 0.87 for Radnik Bijeljina. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Siroki Brijeg vs Radnik Bijeljina Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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