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Borac Banja Luka vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:30

Borac Banja Luka

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWD ··

UPCOMING

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLD ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-14.2%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-18.8%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-16.3%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-15.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 74.6% 1.34 -13.8%

Draw 20.8% 23.1% 4.33 -6.0%

Away win 15.0% 13.3% 7.50 +7.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.6% 1.83 -1.6%

Over 3.5 31.7% 32.8% 3.05 -3.3%

BTTS 49.9% 48.3% 2.07 +3.3%

Home O1.5 60.2% 64.5% 1.55 -6.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 17.9% 5.60 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.9%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 3–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Borac Banja Luka2.1

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BORAC BANJA LUKA · PPG 2.50

ZELJEZNICAR SARAJEVO · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Borac Banja Luka (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -13.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -6.0%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (A) 15.0%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Borac Banja Luka face Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Borac Banja Luka a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 15%, so Borac Banja Luka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Borac Banja Luka and 0.6 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Borac Banja Luka are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.98 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +3.3%.

Borac Banja Luka vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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