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Zrinjski Mostar vs Velez Mostar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 36 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 17:00

Zrinjski Mostar

PPG 1.94 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Velez Mostar

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.2%0-111.9%0-23.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-112.2%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.2%2-16.3%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.5%3-12.2%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 66.7% 1.50 -34.4%

Draw 32.5% 27.4% 3.65 +18.6%

Away win 23.8% 16.1% 6.20 +28.5%

Over 2.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Over 3.5 8.6% 26.3% 3.80 -40.4%

BTTS 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Home O1.5 27.6% 57.1% 1.75 -31.0%

Away O1.5 12.8% 20.0% 5.00 -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.2%

#2 1–0 19.8%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 0–1 11.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zrinjski Mostar1.0

Velez Mostar0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZRINJSKI MOSTAR · PPG 1.94

VELEZ MOSTAR · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Zrinjski Mostar (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -34.4%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +18.6%

Velez Mostar (A) 23.8%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zrinjski Mostar face Velez Mostar in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zrinjski Mostar a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Velez Mostar 24%, so Zrinjski Mostar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Zrinjski Mostar and 0.6 for Velez Mostar (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zrinjski Mostar are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.18 for Velez Mostar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Zrinjski Mostar vs Velez Mostar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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