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Albacete vs Eibar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:30

Albacete

PPG 1.39 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Eibar

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-110.8%0-24.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.7%1-113.2%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.0%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.3%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 32.3% 3.10 +35.2%

Draw 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

Away win 27.1% 42.6% 2.35 -36.3%

Over 2.5 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

Over 3.5 16.5% 23.8% 4.20 -30.7%

BTTS 41.8% 54.1% 1.85 -22.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob41.8%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albacete1.2

Eibar0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.6% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBACETE · PPG 1.39

EIBAR · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.39) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Albacete (H) 43.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +35.2%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.2%

Eibar (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albacete face Eibar in Spain - Segunda División on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albacete a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Eibar 27%, so Albacete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Albacete and 0.9 for Eibar (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albacete are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 0.88 for Eibar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Albacete vs Eibar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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