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Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 10:00

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Kharkiv

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.8%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.5%1-112.9%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.9% — — —

Home O1.5 38.4% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zorya Luhansk1.3

FC Kharkiv1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.55

FC KHARKIV · PPG 1.34

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zorya Luhansk (H) 44.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FC Kharkiv (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Zorya Luhansk face FC Kharkiv in Ukraine - Premier League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zorya Luhansk a 44% chance, the draw 26% and FC Kharkiv 30%, so Zorya Luhansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Zorya Luhansk and 1.1 for FC Kharkiv (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.34 for FC Kharkiv. This match finished 0-3.

Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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