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Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 6 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 17:30

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Étoile Carouge

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.3%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.3%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.2%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.7%3-14.6%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 64.5% 1.55 -25.3%

Draw 26.9% 25.0% 4.00 +4.6%

Away win 24.9% 21.1% 4.75 +11.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 71.4% 1.40 -29.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 51.3% 1.95 -26.4%

BTTS 52.1% 70.4% 1.42 -26.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 71.4% 1.40 -44.1%

Away O1.5 26.6% 40.8% 2.45 -20.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1.5

Étoile Carouge1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STADE LAUSANNE-OUCHY · PPG 1.90

ÉTOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (H) 48.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -25.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.6%

Étoile Carouge (A) 24.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy face Étoile Carouge in Switzerland - Challenge League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Étoile Carouge 25%, so Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.0 for Étoile Carouge (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.20 for Étoile Carouge. This match finished 3-0.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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