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Giana Erminio vs Albinoleffe Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Giana Erminio

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Albinoleffe

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.2%0-25.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.4%1-113.1%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.4%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 43.5% 2.30 +2.1%

Draw 26.6% 34.5% 2.90 -13.7%

Away win 29.1% 32.3% 3.10 -5.9%

Over 2.5 50.1% 44.4% 2.25 +12.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 23.8% 4.20 +10.8%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 40.8% 2.45 -7.4%

Away O1.5 33.7% 33.3% 3.00 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Giana Erminio1.3

Albinoleffe1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GIANA ERMINIO · PPG 1.48

ALBINOLEFFE · PPG 1.21

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Giana Erminio (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +2.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.7%

Albinoleffe (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Giana Erminio face Albinoleffe in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Giana Erminio a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Albinoleffe 29%, so Giana Erminio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Giana Erminio and 1.1 for Albinoleffe (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Giana Erminio are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.21 for Albinoleffe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Giana Erminio vs Albinoleffe Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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