Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone A / Alcione vs Renate

Alcione vs Renate Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 19:00

Alcione

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Renate

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-112.6%0-25.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.7%2-17.2%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.8%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 43.5% 2.30 -10.5%

Draw 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

Away win 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -7.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 25.3% 3.95 -11.2%

BTTS 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 40.8% 2.45 -25.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 32% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alcione1.1

Renate0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALCIONE · PPG 1.62

RENATE · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alcione (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -10.5%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.6%

Renate (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alcione face Renate in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alcione a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Renate 29%, so Alcione are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Alcione and 0.9 for Renate (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alcione are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.62 for Renate. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Alcione vs Renate Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone A Predictions