Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone A / Cittadella vs Pergolettese

Cittadella vs Pergolettese Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Cittadella

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pergolettese

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-18.9%0-24.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.4%1-112.6%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.9%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.2%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 65.4% 1.53 -26.9%

Draw 27.1% 27.0% 3.70 +0.2%

Away win 25.1% 17.2% 5.80 +27.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 50.0% 2.00 +0.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 28.2% 3.55 -0.1%

BTTS 53.0% 50.0% 2.00 +6.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 58.8% 1.70 -32.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 22.2% 4.50 +9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 2–0✓ 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cittadella1.4

Pergolettese0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CITTADELLA · PPG 1.55

PERGOLETTESE · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cittadella (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -26.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +0.2%

Pergolettese (A) 25.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cittadella face Pergolettese in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cittadella a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Pergolettese 25%, so Cittadella are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cittadella and 0.9 for Pergolettese (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cittadella are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.10 for Pergolettese. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Cittadella vs Pergolettese Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone A Predictions