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Ospitaletto vs Lumezzane Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Ospitaletto

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lumezzane

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-111.0%0-25.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.8%1-113.3%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.0%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.2%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 43.5% 2.30 -1.3%

Draw 27.8% 33.9% 2.95 -10.8%

Away win 29.4% 32.3% 3.10 -5.3%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 27.2% 23.8% 4.20 +8.5%

BTTS 51.7% 54.1% 1.85 -4.3%

Home O1.5 32.5% 40.8% 2.45 -20.4%

Away O1.5 32.4% 33.3% 3.00 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.7%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ospitaletto1.2

Lumezzane1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OSPITALETTO · PPG 1.48

LUMEZZANE · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ospitaletto (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -1.3%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.8%

Lumezzane (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ospitaletto face Lumezzane in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ospitaletto a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Lumezzane 29%, so Ospitaletto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ospitaletto and 1.0 for Lumezzane (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ospitaletto are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.42 for Lumezzane. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Ospitaletto vs Lumezzane Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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