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Lecco vs Arzignano Valchiampo Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Lecco

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Arzignano Valchiampo

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.2%0-24.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-112.7%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-18.8%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.1%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 55.6% 1.80 -16.3%

Draw 26.4% 30.3% 3.30 -7.7%

Away win 27.1% 24.4% 4.10 +6.7%

Over 2.5 50.1% 47.6% 2.10 +5.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.7% 3.75 +3.2%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 38.6% 50.0% 2.00 -22.8%

Away O1.5 30.4% 28.2% 3.55 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0✓ 9.2%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lecco1.4

Arzignano Valchiampo1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LECCO · PPG 1.62

ARZIGNANO VALCHIAMPO · PPG 1.48

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lecco (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -16.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.7%

Arzignano Valchiampo (A) 27.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lecco face Arzignano Valchiampo in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lecco a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Arzignano Valchiampo 27%, so Lecco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lecco and 1.0 for Arzignano Valchiampo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lecco are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.48 for Arzignano Valchiampo. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Lecco vs Arzignano Valchiampo Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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