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Red Star vs Guingamp Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 32 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

Red Star

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Guingamp

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home 53% chance

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.7%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.3%1-111.4%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.5%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 52.4% 1.91 +6.4%

Draw 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -13.6%

Away win 20.4% 27.4% 3.65 -25.5%

Over 2.5 48.7% 54.1% 1.85 -9.9%

Over 3.5 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -13.9%

BTTS 49.3% 58.8% 1.70 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.3%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Red Star1.7

Guingamp0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RED STAR · PPG 1.60

GUINGAMP · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Red Star (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +6.4%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.6%

Guingamp (A) 20.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Red Star face Guingamp in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Red Star a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Guingamp 20%, so Red Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Red Star and 0.9 for Guingamp (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Red Star are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.13 for Guingamp. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Red Star vs Guingamp Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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