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Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Ebbsfleet United

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Horsham

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-19.0%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.4%1-112.6%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 61.7% 1.62 -30.7%

Draw 26.2% 27.6% 3.62 -3.1%

Away win 31.1% 21.7% 4.60 +43.1%

Over 2.5 51.3% 57.8% 1.73 -11.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

BTTS 53.8% 58.5% 1.71 -8.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 58.8% 1.70 -32.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 29.9% 3.34 +10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.8%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ebbsfleet United1.4

Horsham1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EBBSFLEET UNITED · PPG 1.88

HORSHAM · PPG 1.49

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ebbsfleet United (H) 42.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -30.7%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.62 · IMPLIED 27.6% EV -3.1%

Horsham (A) 31.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +43.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ebbsfleet United face Horsham in England - National League - South on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ebbsfleet United a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Horsham 31%, so Ebbsfleet United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ebbsfleet United and 1.1 for Horsham (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ebbsfleet United are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.49 for Horsham. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.9%.

Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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