Today / France - Ligue 2 / Clermont vs SC Bastia

Clermont vs SC Bastia Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 32 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

Clermont

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

SC Bastia

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWL

// Model verdict

Home 43% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 39.2% — a clear edge.

+34.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-19.4%0-22.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.1%1-111.6%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-17.2%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.2%3-13.0%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 39.2% 2.55 +34.1%

Draw 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

Away win 17.3% 36.4% 2.75 -52.4%

Over 2.5 27.6% 45.5% 2.20 -39.3%

Over 3.5 11.3% 23.8% 4.20 -52.5%

BTTS 31.3% 54.1% 1.85 -42.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob31.3%

H 53% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.1%

#2 0–0 16.1%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 1–1✓ 11.6%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Clermont1.2

SC Bastia0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.6% · O3.5 PROB 11.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CLERMONT · PPG 1.13

SC BASTIA · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

43%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Clermont (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +34.1%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.0%

SC Bastia (A) 17.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -52.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Clermont face SC Bastia in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Clermont a 53% chance, the draw 30% and SC Bastia 17%, so Clermont are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Clermont and 0.6 for SC Bastia (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Clermont are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.67 for SC Bastia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Clermont vs SC Bastia Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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