Today / France - Ligue 2 / Annecy vs Pau FC

Annecy vs Pau FC Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

Annecy

PPG 1.60 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Pau FC

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+20.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.3%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.6%1-110.2%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-16.5%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.9%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.3% 50.0% 2.00 +20.6%

Draw 21.6% 29.4% 3.40 -26.6%

Away win 18.2% 27.8% 3.60 -34.5%

Over 2.5 55.7% 51.8% 1.93 +7.5%

Over 3.5 33.3% 29.9% 3.35 +11.6%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 60% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 10.6%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Annecy1.9

Pau FC1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ANNECY · PPG 1.60

PAU FC · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Annecy (H) 60.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +20.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -26.6%

Pau FC (A) 18.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Annecy face Pau FC in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Annecy a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Pau FC 18%, so Annecy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Annecy and 1.0 for Pau FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Annecy are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.67 for Pau FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 5-1.

Annecy vs Pau FC Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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