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Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Cajamarca

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sport Huancayo

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.5% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+52.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-14.6%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-19.3%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.5%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-16.3%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-15.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.5% 45.0% 2.22 +52.1%

Draw 19.7% 32.3% 3.10 -38.9%

Away win 11.8% 29.9% 3.35 -60.5%

Over 2.5 51.1% 47.6% 2.10 +7.3%

Over 3.5 29.0% 26.3% 3.80 +10.2%

BTTS 43.5% 55.6% 1.80 -21.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.5%

H 68% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cajamarca2.0

Sport Huancayo0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.75

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 0.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cajamarca (H) 68.5%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +52.1%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -38.9%

Sport Huancayo (A) 11.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -60.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cajamarca face Sport Huancayo in Peru - Primera División on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cajamarca a 69% chance, the draw 20% and Sport Huancayo 12%, so Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Cajamarca and 0.7 for Sport Huancayo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cajamarca are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Sport Huancayo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +52.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions