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Amiens vs Montpellier Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

Amiens

PPG 0.60 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Montpellier

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-114.4%0-29.1%0-33.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.3%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.7%2-15.9%2-23.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.4%3-11.8%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 28.2% 3.55 -5.2%

Draw 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +6.2%

Away win 44.6% 52.4% 1.91 -14.8%

Over 2.5 37.0% 56.5% 1.77 -34.5%

Over 3.5 17.5% 33.9% 2.95 -48.4%

BTTS 42.8% 60.6% 1.65 -29.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob42.8%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–2✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Amiens0.9

Montpellier1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AMIENS · PPG 0.60

MONTPELLIER · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.27) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Amiens (H) 26.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.2%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +6.2%

Montpellier (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Amiens face Montpellier in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amiens a 27% chance, the draw 29% and Montpellier 45%, so Montpellier are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Amiens and 1.3 for Montpellier (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amiens are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.27 for Montpellier. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Amiens vs Montpellier Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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