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Toluca W vs León W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 00:00

Toluca W

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

León W

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.8%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.9%1-18.4%1-26.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.7%3-16.7%3-24.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.2%4+-24.4%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 69.4% 1.44 -23.8%

Draw 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -4.1%

Away win 24.9% 20.0% 5.00 +14.7%

Over 2.5 64.3% 73.5% 1.36 -12.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 54.6% 1.83 -20.9%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 36.4% 2.75 +12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toluca W2.2

León W1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TOLUCA W · PPG 1.90

LEÓN W · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Toluca W (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -23.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.1%

León W (A) 24.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toluca W face León W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toluca W a 53% chance, the draw 22% and León W 25%, so Toluca W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Toluca W and 1.4 for León W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toluca W are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.78 for León W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Toluca W vs León W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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