Today / Mexico - Liga MX Femenil / Atlético San Luis W vs Atlas W

Atlético San Luis W vs Atlas W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:00

Atlético San Luis W

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Atlas W

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.2%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.6%1-19.7%1-27.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.9%3-15.7%3-24.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 43.5% 2.30 +8.1%

Draw 23.3% 27.0% 3.70 -8.3%

Away win 29.6% 40.0% 2.50 -15.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 61.7% 1.62 +2.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% 40.0% 2.50 -1.8%

BTTS 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Home O1.5 56.3% 59.9% 1.67 -6.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 38.2% 2.62 +7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético San Luis W1.9

Atlas W1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO SAN LUIS W · PPG 1.32

ATLAS W · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético San Luis W (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +8.1%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.3%

Atlas W (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético San Luis W face Atlas W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético San Luis W a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Atlas W 30%, so Atlético San Luis W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Atlético San Luis W and 1.5 for Atlas W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético San Luis W are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 0.95 for Atlas W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 6-1.

Atlético San Luis W vs Atlas W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga MX Femenil Predictions