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América W vs Tijuana W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:45

América W

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Tijuana W

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.45 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.92 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.1%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.9%1-14.0%1-22.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.7%2-16.9%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-18.0%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-016.5%4+-116.8%4+-28.6%4+-32.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 92.6% 1.08 -17.7%

Draw 15.6% 12.5% 8.00 +14.9%

Away win 8.2% 4.8% 21.00 +43.3%

Over 2.5 76.6% 80.0% 1.25 -4.3%

Over 3.5 56.2% 62.1% 1.61 -9.5%

BTTS 60.8% 45.5% 2.20 +33.8%

Home O1.5 77.3% — — —

Away O1.5 32.6% 12.5% 8.00 +160.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.8%

H 76% / xG 3.5-1.0 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 8.0%

#2 3–0 7.8%

#3 4–1 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 4–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

América W3.5

Tijuana W1.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AMÉRICA W · PPG 2.38

TIJUANA W · PPG 0.92

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.45 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.92 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

América W (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.08 · IMPLIED 92.6% EV -17.7%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +14.9%

Tijuana W (A) 8.2%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV +43.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

América W face Tijuana W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives América W a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Tijuana W 8%, so América W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for América W and 1.0 for Tijuana W (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, América W are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.92 for Tijuana W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +236.5%. This match finished 3-1.

América W vs Tijuana W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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