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Guadalajara W vs Pumas UNAM W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:06

Guadalajara W

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Pumas UNAM W

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.3%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.6%1-17.7%1-25.3%1-32.5%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.2%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-17.4%4+-25.1%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 62.5% 1.60 -16.0%

Draw 21.4% 22.2% 4.50 -2.2%

Away win 26.0% 26.3% 3.80 -0.7%

Over 2.5 68.2% 63.7% 1.57 +7.1%

Over 3.5 47.3% 42.0% 2.38 +12.6%

BTTS 63.1% 61.7% 1.62 +2.2%

Home O1.5 65.8% 65.4% 1.53 +0.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 33.3% 3.00 +22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 5.3%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guadalajara W2.4

Pumas UNAM W1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUADALAJARA W · PPG 2.21

PUMAS UNAM W · PPG 1.24

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guadalajara W (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -16.0%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -2.2%

Pumas UNAM W (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalajara W face Pumas UNAM W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalajara W a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Pumas UNAM W 26%, so Guadalajara W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Guadalajara W and 1.4 for Pumas UNAM W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalajara W are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.24 for Pumas UNAM W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Guadalajara W vs Pumas UNAM W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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