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Dusseldorf B vs S. Siegen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Dusseldorf B

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

S. Siegen

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.9%0-27.5%0-35.4%0-4+4.8%1 1-04.1%1-18.9%1-29.6%1-36.9%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.6%2-15.7%2-26.1%2-34.4%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 43.5% 2.30 -48.9%

Draw 20.5% 27.4% 3.65 -25.2%

Away win 57.3% 38.5% 2.60 +49.0%

Over 2.5 66.8% 61.7% 1.62 +8.2%

Over 3.5 45.1% 38.5% 2.60 +17.3%

BTTS 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.9%

A 57% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 0–1 6.9%

#5 1–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dusseldorf B1.3

S. Siegen2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DUSSELDORF B · PPG 1.20

S. SIEGEN · PPG 1.50

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Dusseldorf B (H) 22.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -48.9%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -25.2%

S. Siegen (A) 57.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +49.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dusseldorf B face S. Siegen in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dusseldorf B a 22% chance, the draw 21% and S. Siegen 57%, so S. Siegen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dusseldorf B and 2.2 for S. Siegen (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dusseldorf B are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.50 for S. Siegen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Dusseldorf B vs S. Siegen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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