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Bonner SC vs Paderborn B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Bonner SC

PPG 1.15 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Paderborn B

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-115.5%0-28.8%0-33.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.7%1-113.3%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.0%2-15.7%2-23.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.4%3-11.6%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.5% 42.0% 2.38 -34.5%

Draw 30.5% 29.4% 3.40 +3.7%

Away win 42.0% 38.5% 2.60 +9.2%

Over 2.5 32.2% 56.5% 1.77 -43.0%

Over 3.5 14.2% 33.9% 2.95 -58.1%

BTTS 39.1% 62.5% 1.60 -37.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob39.1%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.5%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1✓ 13.3%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bonner SC0.9

Paderborn B1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BONNER SC · PPG 1.15

PADERBORN B · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.15) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Bonner SC (H) 27.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -34.5%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +3.7%

Paderborn B (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bonner SC face Paderborn B in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bonner SC a 28% chance, the draw 31% and Paderborn B 42%, so Paderborn B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bonner SC and 1.1 for Paderborn B (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bonner SC are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.80 for Paderborn B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Bonner SC vs Paderborn B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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