Today / France - National 1 / Valenciennes vs Dijon

Valenciennes vs Dijon Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Valenciennes

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Dijon

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-116.4%0-210.1%0-34.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.5%1-112.9%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-04.1%2-15.1%2-23.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.1%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -21.8%

Draw 29.6% 33.3% 3.00 -11.2%

Away win 46.7% 46.5% 2.15 +0.4%

Over 2.5 32.9% 47.6% 2.10 -30.9%

Over 3.5 14.6% 26.7% 3.75 -45.3%

BTTS 38.6% 55.6% 1.80 -30.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob38.6%

A 47% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 16.4%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–2 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valenciennes0.8

Dijon1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENCIENNES · PPG 1.57

DIJON · PPG 1.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.57) vs Away GOOD (1.93)

Win probability 1X2

Valenciennes (H) 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -21.8%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.2%

Dijon (A) 46.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valenciennes face Dijon in France - National 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valenciennes a 24% chance, the draw 30% and Dijon 47%, so Dijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Valenciennes and 1.2 for Dijon (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valenciennes are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.93 for Dijon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Valenciennes vs Dijon Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions