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Stade Briochin vs Concarneau Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Stade Briochin

PPG 0.71 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Concarneau

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-111.9%0-25.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.7%1-113.4%1-26.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.7%2-17.6%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.9%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 30.3% 3.30 +28.7%

Draw 29.8% 35.7% 2.80 -16.6%

Away win 31.2% 44.4% 2.25 -29.8%

Over 2.5 35.2% 47.6% 2.10 -26.1%

Over 3.5 16.3% 27.0% 3.70 -39.7%

BTTS 42.2% 56.5% 1.77 -25.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob42.2%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stade Briochin1.1

Concarneau1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

STADE BRIOCHIN · PPG 0.71

CONCARNEAU · PPG 1.07

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.71) vs Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Stade Briochin (H) 39.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +28.7%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -16.6%

Concarneau (A) 31.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stade Briochin face Concarneau in France - National 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stade Briochin a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Concarneau 31%, so Stade Briochin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Stade Briochin and 1.0 for Concarneau (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stade Briochin are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.07 for Concarneau. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Stade Briochin vs Concarneau Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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