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Sochaux vs Bourg-en-Bresse Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Sochaux

PPG 2.15 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bourg-en-Bresse

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 82.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+22.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-12.3%0-20.4%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.9%1-15.3%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.4%2-16.1%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.8%3-14.7%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-014.6%4+-14.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 82.5% 67.6% 1.48 +22.1%

Draw 13.7% 28.2% 3.55 -51.4%

Away win 3.8% 14.3% 7.00 -73.4%

Over 2.5 48.4% 45.5% 2.20 +6.5%

Over 3.5 26.6% 25.0% 4.00 +6.4%

BTTS 24.3% 45.5% 2.20 -46.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob24.3%

H 82% / xG 2.3-0.3 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 24%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 19.4%

#2 1–0 16.9%

#3 3–0 14.8%

#4 4–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sochaux2.3

Bourg-en-Bresse0.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SOCHAUX · PPG 2.15

BOURG-EN-BRESSE · PPG 0.80

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.15), Away POOR (0.80) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sochaux (H) 82.5%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +22.1%

Draw 13.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -51.4%

Bourg-en-Bresse (A) 3.8%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -73.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sochaux face Bourg-en-Bresse in France - National 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sochaux a 83% chance, the draw 14% and Bourg-en-Bresse 4%, so Sochaux are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sochaux and 0.3 for Bourg-en-Bresse (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 24% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sochaux are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.80 for Bourg-en-Bresse. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Sochaux vs Bourg-en-Bresse Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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