Today / France - National 1 / Rouen vs Aubagne

Rouen vs Aubagne Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Rouen

PPG 1.86 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Aubagne

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.5%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-19.9%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-18.8%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.7%3-15.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-13.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.1% 67.6% 1.48 -2.2%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -17.5%

Away win 11.9% 15.6% 6.40 -23.8%

Over 2.5 43.0% 54.1% 1.85 -20.4%

Over 3.5 22.1% 32.3% 3.10 -31.5%

BTTS 37.8% 54.1% 1.85 -30.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob37.8%

H 66% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 2–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rouen1.8

Aubagne0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ROUEN · PPG 1.86

AUBAGNE · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Rouen (H) 66.1%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -2.2%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -17.5%

Aubagne (A) 11.9%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rouen face Aubagne in France - National 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rouen a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Aubagne 12%, so Rouen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Rouen and 0.6 for Aubagne (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rouen are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.43 for Aubagne. This match finished 3-1.

Rouen vs Aubagne Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions