Today / France - National 1 / Orleans vs Quevilly Rouen

Orleans vs Quevilly Rouen Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Orleans

PPG 1.64 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Quevilly Rouen

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.5%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-19.4%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.9%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-15.9%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.9% 64.5% 1.55 +2.1%

Draw 19.7% 28.2% 3.55 -30.1%

Away win 14.4% 17.9% 5.60 -19.4%

Over 2.5 56.9% 54.1% 1.85 +5.3%

Over 3.5 34.5% 32.3% 3.10 +7.0%

BTTS 50.7% 54.6% 1.83 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.7%

H 66% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orleans2.1

Quevilly Rouen0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLEANS · PPG 1.64

QUEVILLY ROUEN · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Orleans (H) 65.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +2.1%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -30.1%

Quevilly Rouen (A) 14.4%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orleans face Quevilly Rouen in France - National 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orleans a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Quevilly Rouen 14%, so Orleans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Orleans and 0.9 for Quevilly Rouen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orleans are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.93 for Quevilly Rouen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Orleans vs Quevilly Rouen Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions