Today / Colombia - Primera A / Águilas Doradas vs Chico

Águilas Doradas vs Chico Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Águilas Doradas

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Chico

PPG 0.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-13.1%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.3%1-17.2%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.3%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.9%3-16.4%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-16.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.4% 63.7% 1.57 +10.5%

Draw 20.4% 28.6% 3.50 -17.2%

Away win 9.2% 16.7% 6.00 -26.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 45.5% 2.20 +17.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 25.0% 4.00 +26.0%

BTTS 47.2% 46.5% 2.15 +1.5%

Home O1.5 65.8% 54.6% 1.83 +20.4%

Away O1.5 15.1% 18.2% 5.50 -10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.2%

H 70% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.4%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 3–0 11.9%

#4 1–1 7.2%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Águilas Doradas2.3

Chico0.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ÁGUILAS DORADAS · PPG 1.46

CHICO · PPG 0.08

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 1.46 vs 0.08 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Águilas Doradas (H) 70.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +10.5%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.2%

Chico (A) 9.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Águilas Doradas face Chico in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Águilas Doradas a 70% chance, the draw 20% and Chico 9%, so Águilas Doradas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Águilas Doradas and 0.5 for Chico (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Águilas Doradas are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.08 for Chico. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +53.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Águilas Doradas vs Chico Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions