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Le Puy vs Versailles Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Le Puy

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Versailles

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 42.9% — a clear edge.

+18.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-18.6%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.4%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-18.9%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.3%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 42.9% 2.33 +18.8%

Draw 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -19.6%

Away win 22.2% 33.3% 3.00 -33.4%

Over 2.5 40.3% 48.8% 2.05 -17.4%

Over 3.5 20.0% 27.4% 3.65 -27.0%

BTTS 43.9% 57.1% 1.75 -23.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.9%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Le Puy1.4

Versailles0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LE PUY · PPG 1.50

VERSAILLES · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Le Puy (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +18.8%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.6%

Versailles (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -33.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Le Puy face Versailles in France - National 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Le Puy a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Versailles 22%, so Le Puy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Le Puy and 0.9 for Versailles (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Le Puy are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Versailles. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Le Puy vs Versailles Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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