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Chateauroux vs Fleury-Merogis Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Chateauroux

PPG 0.71 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Fleury-Merogis

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-113.5%0-29.6%0-34.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.1%2-15.9%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.3%3-11.8%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.8% 37.0% 2.70 -33.0%

Draw 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -8.2%

Away win 48.3% 43.5% 2.30 +11.1%

Over 2.5 41.6% 56.5% 1.77 -26.4%

Over 3.5 21.0% 34.5% 2.90 -39.1%

BTTS 45.9% 62.5% 1.60 -26.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob45.9%

A 48% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.5%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–2✓ 9.6%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chateauroux0.9

Fleury-Merogis1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.6% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATEAUROUX · PPG 0.71

FLEURY-MEROGIS · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.64) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Chateauroux (H) 24.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -33.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.2%

Fleury-Merogis (A) 48.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chateauroux face Fleury-Merogis in France - National 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chateauroux a 25% chance, the draw 27% and Fleury-Merogis 48%, so Fleury-Merogis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Chateauroux and 1.4 for Fleury-Merogis (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chateauroux are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.64 for Fleury-Merogis. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Chateauroux vs Fleury-Merogis Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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