Today / France - National 1 / Caen vs Villefranche

Caen vs Villefranche Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Caen

PPG 1.43 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Villefranche

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-17.1%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-111.1%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-18.7%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.0%3-14.5%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 56.5% 1.77 +5.5%

Draw 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -18.1%

Away win 15.2% 22.7% 4.40 -33.1%

Over 2.5 37.9% 51.8% 1.93 -26.9%

Over 3.5 18.2% 30.8% 3.25 -40.8%

BTTS 37.6% 56.5% 1.77 -33.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob37.6%

H 60% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caen1.6

Villefranche0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CAEN · PPG 1.43

VILLEFRANCHE · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Caen (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +5.5%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -18.1%

Villefranche (A) 15.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caen face Villefranche in France - National 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caen a 60% chance, the draw 25% and Villefranche 15%, so Caen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Caen and 0.6 for Villefranche (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caen are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.77 for Villefranche. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Caen vs Villefranche Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions