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Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

Sigma Olomouc

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Pardubice

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.2%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.2%1-111.1%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-15.8%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 51.3% 1.95 +2.8%

Draw 23.8% 29.4% 3.40 -11.5%

Away win 23.5% 27.8% 3.60 -9.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 48.8% 54.6% 1.83 -10.7%

Away O1.5 29.4% 36.4% 2.75 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sigma Olomouc1.8

Pardubice1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SIGMA OLOMOUC · PPG 1.59

PARDUBICE · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sigma Olomouc (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +2.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.5%

Pardubice (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sigma Olomouc face Pardubice in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sigma Olomouc a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Pardubice 24%, so Sigma Olomouc are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sigma Olomouc and 1.0 for Pardubice (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.07 for Pardubice. This match finished 3-1.

Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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