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Zlin vs Slovan Liberec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Zlin

PPG 1.02 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Slovan Liberec

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-112.9%0-29.5%0-34.7%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.3%1-112.4%1-29.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.0%2-15.9%2-24.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% 25.3% 3.95 +2.3%

Draw 27.1% 30.3% 3.30 -6.3%

Away win 46.7% 53.5% 1.87 -12.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 52.6% 1.90 -4.6%

Over 3.5 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -7.2%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 31.3% 3.20 -2.1%

Away O1.5 41.2% 52.4% 1.91 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.0%

A 47% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1✓ 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zlin1.0

Slovan Liberec1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ZLIN · PPG 1.02

SLOVAN LIBEREC · PPG 1.75

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Zlin (H) 26.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +2.3%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.3%

Slovan Liberec (A) 46.7%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zlin face Slovan Liberec in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zlin a 26% chance, the draw 27% and Slovan Liberec 47%, so Slovan Liberec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Zlin and 1.5 for Slovan Liberec (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zlin are averaging 1.02 points per game versus 1.75 for Slovan Liberec. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Zlin vs Slovan Liberec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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