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Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Mlada Boleslav

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Slovácko

PPG 0.74 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+13.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.0%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.5%1-18.8%1-24.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.3%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-16.8%4+-23.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 54.6% 1.83 +2.5%

Draw 22.2% 29.0% 3.45 -14.1%

Away win 21.8% 25.6% 3.90 -9.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 37.7% 2.65 -3.0%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 57.1% 1.75 +13.9%

Away O1.5 25.5% 35.7% 2.80 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1✓ 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mlada Boleslav2.2

Slovácko0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADA BOLESLAV · PPG 1.51

SLOVÁCKO · PPG 0.74

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mlada Boleslav (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +2.5%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.1%

Slovácko (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mlada Boleslav face Slovácko in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mlada Boleslav a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Slovácko 22%, so Mlada Boleslav are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Mlada Boleslav and 0.9 for Slovácko (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 0.74 for Slovácko. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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