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Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Baník Ostrava

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sigma Olomouc

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.3%0-27.1%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.0%1-112.5%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.4%2-17.6%2-25.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.2%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 43.9% 2.28 -28.4%

Draw 24.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.2%

Away win 44.4% 35.2% 2.84 +26.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 54.3% 61.7% 1.62 -12.0%

Home O1.5 32.9% 47.6% 2.10 -30.9%

Away O1.5 40.9% 40.8% 2.45 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.3%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–1 10.3%

#4 0–2 7.1%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baník Ostrava1.2

Sigma Olomouc1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BANÍK OSTRAVA · PPG 1.35

SIGMA OLOMOUC · PPG 1.58

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Baník Ostrava (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -28.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.2%

Sigma Olomouc (A) 44.4%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV +26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baník Ostrava face Sigma Olomouc in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baník Ostrava a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Sigma Olomouc 44%, so Sigma Olomouc are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Baník Ostrava and 1.4 for Sigma Olomouc (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.58 for Sigma Olomouc. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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