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Oberwart vs Retz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 28 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Oberwart

PPG 1.92 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Retz

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 92.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7% — a clear edge.

+17.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-10.6%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.7%1-12.3%1-20.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.6%2-14.7%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.3%3-16.4%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-031.0%4+-119.4%4+-26.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 92.6% 78.7% 1.27 +17.6%

Draw 5.2% 19.0% 5.25 -72.7%

Away win 2.2% 14.3% 7.00 -84.6%

Over 2.5 84.7% 71.4% 1.40 +18.6%

Over 3.5 69.0% — — —

BTTS 45.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.8%

H 93% / xG 4.1-0.6 / O2.5 85% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 10.4%

#2 3–0 10.3%

#3 5–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 4–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oberwart4.1

Retz0.6

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.7% · O3.5 PROB 69.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OBERWART · PPG 1.92

RETZ · PPG 0.42

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.92), Away POOR (0.42) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oberwart (H) 92.6%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV +17.6%

Draw 5.2%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -72.7%

Retz (A) 2.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -84.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oberwart face Retz in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oberwart a 93% chance, the draw 5% and Retz 2%, so Oberwart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Oberwart and 0.6 for Retz (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oberwart are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.42 for Retz. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Oberwart vs Retz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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