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Atletico M. B vs Real Betis B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Atletico M. B

PPG 1.94 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Real Betis B

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 87.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+36.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.3%1-13.7%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.3%2-16.4%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-17.5%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-023.1%4+-116.0%4+-25.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.9% 64.5% 1.55 +36.2%

Draw 8.2% 28.2% 3.55 -70.9%

Away win 3.9% 17.4% 5.75 -77.6%

Over 2.5 78.7% 54.1% 1.85 +45.6%

Over 3.5 60.1% 31.3% 3.20 +92.3%

BTTS 48.4% 54.1% 1.85 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 88% / xG 3.5-0.7 / O2.5 79% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.8%

#2 4–0 9.4%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 3–1✓ 7.5%

#5 5–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico M. B3.5

Real Betis B0.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.7% · O3.5 PROB 60.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO M. B · PPG 1.94

REAL BETIS B · PPG 0.81

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.94), Away POOR (0.81) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Atletico M. B (H) 87.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +36.2%

Draw 8.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -70.9%

Real Betis B (A) 3.9%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -77.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico M. B face Real Betis B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico M. B a 88% chance, the draw 8% and Real Betis B 4%, so Atletico M. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Atletico M. B and 0.7 for Real Betis B (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico M. B are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 0.81 for Real Betis B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +92.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Atletico M. B vs Real Betis B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions