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Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:30

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shakhtar Donetsk

PPG 2.04 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+20.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.6%0-27.3%0-34.6%0-4+3.4%1 1-05.2%1-110.0%1-29.5%1-36.1%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.4%2-16.5%2-26.3%2-34.0%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.5%3-12.9%3-22.7%3-31.8%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 10.9% 9.20 +187.0%

Draw 23.1% 23.8% 4.20 -1.8%

Away win 45.7% 75.2% 1.33 -39.2%

Over 2.5 63.4% 58.8% 1.70 +7.8%

Over 3.5 39.5% 37.7% 2.65 +4.7%

BTTS 61.8% 51.3% 1.95 +20.5%

Home O1.5 37.4% 20.0% 5.00 +87.0%

Away O1.5 54.7% 70.4% 1.42 -22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 23.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.8%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2✓ 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi1.3

Shakhtar Donetsk1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EPITSENTR DUNAYIVTSI · PPG 1.67

SHAKHTAR DONETSK · PPG 2.04

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.60 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (H) 31.2%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV +187.0%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.8%

Shakhtar Donetsk (A) 45.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -39.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi face Shakhtar Donetsk in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 31% chance, the draw 23% and Shakhtar Donetsk 46%, so Shakhtar Donetsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.9 for Shakhtar Donetsk (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.04 for Shakhtar Donetsk. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +139.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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