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Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 10:00

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.92 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kryvbas KR

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.3%1-19.4%1-24.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.9%3-17.0%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-16.0%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 59.5% 1.68 -5.1%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

Over 2.5 62.3% 62.5% 1.60 -0.3%

Over 3.5 38.5% 40.0% 2.50 -3.8%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 61.4% 62.5% 1.60 -1.8%

Away O1.5 32.0% 35.7% 2.80 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 23.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zorya Luhansk2.1

Kryvbas KR1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.92

KRYVBAS KR · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zorya Luhansk (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -5.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Kryvbas KR (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zorya Luhansk face Kryvbas KR in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zorya Luhansk a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Kryvbas KR 21%, so Zorya Luhansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Zorya Luhansk and 1.0 for Kryvbas KR (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.43 for Kryvbas KR. This match finished 1-3.

Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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