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Memmingen vs W. Burghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Memmingen

PPG 1.14 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

W. Burghausen

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.7%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.3%1-112.4%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 33.9% 2.95 +23.9%

Draw 26.1% 28.2% 3.55 -7.3%

Away win 31.9% 47.6% 2.10 -33.0%

Over 2.5 48.7% 56.5% 1.77 -13.8%

Over 3.5 26.9% 33.9% 2.95 -20.6%

BTTS 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 0–1✓ 8.7%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Memmingen1.4

W. Burghausen1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MEMMINGEN · PPG 1.14

W. BURGHAUSEN · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Memmingen (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +23.9%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.3%

W. Burghausen (A) 31.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Memmingen face W. Burghausen in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Memmingen a 42% chance, the draw 26% and W. Burghausen 32%, so Memmingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Memmingen and 1.2 for W. Burghausen (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Memmingen are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.86 for W. Burghausen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Memmingen vs W. Burghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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