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Buchbach vs Augsburg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Buchbach

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Augsburg B

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.2%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.9%1-110.2%1-25.8%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.6%3-16.4%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.8%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 42.0% 2.38 +32.8%

Draw 22.0% 27.8% 3.60 -20.8%

Away win 22.2% 40.0% 2.50 -44.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 62.5% 1.60 -4.6%

Over 3.5 37.2% 40.0% 2.50 -7.0%

BTTS 58.4% 66.7% 1.50 -12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.4%

H 56% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buchbach1.9

Augsburg B1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHBACH · PPG 1.47

AUGSBURG B · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Buchbach (H) 55.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +32.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -20.8%

Augsburg B (A) 22.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -44.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Buchbach face Augsburg B in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buchbach a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Augsburg B 22%, so Buchbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Buchbach and 1.1 for Augsburg B (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buchbach are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.93 for Augsburg B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.8%. This match finished 0-4.

Buchbach vs Augsburg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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