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Sogndal vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Sogndal

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stromsgodset

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.6%0-24.2%0-33.4%0-4+3.5%1 1-02.7%1-16.5%1-27.7%1-36.1%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.5%2-15.9%2-27.0%2-35.6%2-4+5.9%3 3-01.5%3-13.6%3-24.3%3-33.4%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.5%4+-22.9%4+-32.3%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 23.8% 4.20 +32.3%

Draw 22.2% 22.7% 4.40 -1.4%

Away win 46.3% 63.7% 1.57 -27.3%

Over 2.5 68.2% 80.0% 1.25 -14.8%

Over 3.5 48.2% 61.7% 1.62 -21.9%

BTTS 67.5% 78.1% 1.28 -13.6%

Home O1.5 51.5% 50.0% 2.00 +3.0%

Away O1.5 67.8% 78.1% 1.28 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob67.5%

A 46% / xG 1.8-2.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.5%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–1 5.9%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal1.8

Stromsgodset2.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL · PPG 1.78

STROMSGODSET · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal (H) 31.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +32.3%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.4%

Stromsgodset (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal face Stromsgodset in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal a 32% chance, the draw 22% and Stromsgodset 46%, so Stromsgodset are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sogndal and 2.4 for Stromsgodset (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.67 for Stromsgodset. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 2-3.

Sogndal vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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