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Asane vs Lyn Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 17:00

Asane

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lyn

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.5%0-23.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.1%1-19.1%1-26.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.8%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.1%3-16.1%3-24.5%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.8%4+-23.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 34.7% 2.88 +28.7%

Draw 21.3% 26.7% 3.75 -12.1%

Away win 34.0% 48.8% 2.05 -30.3%

Over 2.5 68.2% 72.5% 1.38 -5.9%

Over 3.5 45.0% 51.3% 1.95 -12.3%

BTTS 63.1% 75.2% 1.33 -16.1%

Home O1.5 56.3% 54.1% 1.85 +4.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 62.5% 1.60 -34.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2✓ 6.7%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asane2.0

Lyn1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ASANE · PPG 1.44

LYN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Asane (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +28.7%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.1%

Lyn (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asane face Lyn in Norway - 1st Division on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asane a 45% chance, the draw 21% and Lyn 34%, so Asane are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Asane and 1.5 for Lyn (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asane are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Lyn. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Asane vs Lyn Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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