Today / Norway - 1st Division / Egersund vs Asane

Egersund vs Asane Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Egersund

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Asane

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.8%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.9%1-18.6%1-24.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-17.4%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-17.2%4+-23.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 69.0% 1.45 -22.4%

Draw 22.4% 22.2% 4.50 +0.5%

Away win 24.1% 18.5% 5.40 +18.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 72.5% 1.38 -12.9%

Over 3.5 39.3% 50.0% 2.00 -21.4%

BTTS 60.0% 67.6% 1.48 -11.2%

Home O1.5 65.8% 74.1% 1.35 -11.2%

Away O1.5 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–2 4.6%

#5 3–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Egersund2.3

Asane1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EGERSUND · PPG 1.90

ASANE · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Egersund (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -22.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +0.5%

Asane (A) 24.1%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Egersund face Asane in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Egersund a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Asane 24%, so Egersund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Egersund and 1.1 for Asane (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Egersund are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.44 for Asane. This match finished 2-2.

Egersund vs Asane Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 1st Division Predictions